The Global Strategy Lab is pleased to announce our publication of two studies in The British Medical Journal (BMJ) on the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC). These two studies represent the first ever quantitative evaluation of the global impact of the FCTC.
The first study, titled “Cigarette consumption estimates for 71 countries from 1970 to 2015: systematic collection of comparable data to facilitate quasi-experimental evaluations of national and global tobacco control interventions” describes a systematic process by which the authors collected, appraised, selected, and reported best-available national estimates of cigarette consumption for 71 countries from 1970 to 2015. Overall the data concord with IHME’s previously published country-level data, but this study’s new dataset has the advantage of not smoothing year-over-year discontinuities that are necessary for robust quasi-experimental impact evaluations. Read the full study here.
The second study, titled “Impact of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control on global cigarette consumption: quasi-experimental evaluations using interrupted time series analysis and in-sample forecast event modelling” uses data from the first study to measure the impact of the FCTC using two quasi-experimental designs. Overall the authors find no significant change in the rate at which global cigarette consumption has been decreasing following the FCTC’s adoption in 2003; however, stratified analysis reveals significant reductions in cigarette consumption among high-income and European countries, and significant increases among low- and middle-income and Asian countries. Read the full study here.